| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 70.9% | 82% | -10.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 76.7% | 23.3% |
| logistic | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| Carlo Alberto Caniato | Max Wiskandt | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1683 | 1431 |
| Surface Elo | 1683 | 1431 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.67 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.44 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Francesco Passaro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Max Wiskandt | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Luka Mikrut | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Francesco Forti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Jay Clarke | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Pierluigi Basile | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Pierluigi Basile | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | H | Carlos Taberner | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Andrey Chepelev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 0 | Max Wiskandt |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.65 | 27.4% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.26 | 79.4% | 06 Oct 06:15 |