| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.0% | 54% | -2.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.5% | 79% | -0.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.0% | 71% | -2.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.6% | 41% | +12.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 49.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.8% | 23.6% | 26.6% |
| xgboost | 53.8% | 25.4% | 20.8% |
| logistic | 50.9% | 27.3% | 21.9% |
| Hertha Berlin | Bielefeld | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1550 | 1428 |
| Surface Elo | 1550 | 1428 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | -0.70 |
| Season points per game | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 3 D |
| 16 Oct | A | Holstein Kiel | 0 - 0 | D |
| 16 Oct | A | Holstein Kiel | 0 - 0 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Greuther Furth | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Greuther Furth | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Augsburg | 2 - 2 | D |
| 18 Oct | H | Osnabruck | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Osnabruck | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Bochum | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Bochum | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Heidenheim | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 May 2026 | Bielefeld | 6 - 1 | Hertha Berlin |
| 19 Dec 2025 | Hertha Berlin | 1 - 1 | Bielefeld |
| 30 Apr 2022 | Bielefeld | 1 - 1 | Hertha Berlin |
| 11 Dec 2021 | Hertha Berlin | 2 - 0 | Bielefeld |
| 09 May 2021 | Hertha Berlin | 0 - 0 | Bielefeld |
| 10 Jan 2021 | Bielefeld | 1 - 0 | Hertha Berlin |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.85 | 54.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.54 | 64.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.45 | 40.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |