| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 73.4% | 82% | -8.6% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 92.7% | 96% | -3.5% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 91.2% | 95% | -4.0% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% | 58% | +2.5% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.9% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 77.3% | 15.3% | 7.4% |
| xgboost | 78.5% | 12.9% | 8.5% |
| logistic | 82.3% | 13.6% | 4.2% |
| Porto | Estoril | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1886 | 1422 |
| Surface Elo | 1886 | 1422 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 2.33 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 7 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 28 Oct | H | Academico Viseu | 1 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | UD Leiria | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | Gil Vicente | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Gil Vicente | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | PSV Eindhoven | 0 - 1 | L |
| 25 Oct | H | Moreirense | 1 - 3 | L |
| 25 Oct | H | Moreirense | 1 - 3 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | SC Salgueiros | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Academico Viseu | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Academico Viseu | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Apr 2026 | Estoril | 1 - 3 | Porto |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Porto | 1 - 0 | Estoril |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Estoril | 1 - 2 | Porto |
| 03 Nov 2024 | Porto | 4 - 0 | Estoril |
| 30 Mar 2024 | Estoril | 1 - 0 | Porto |
| 03 Nov 2023 | Porto | 0 - 1 | Estoril |
| 10 Mar 2023 | Porto | 3 - 2 | Estoril |
| 17 Sep 2022 | Estoril | 1 - 1 | Porto |
| 14 May 2022 | Porto | 2 - 0 | Estoril |
| 08 Jan 2022 | Estoril | 2 - 3 | Porto |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 15.46 | 6.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 7.00 | 14.3% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.22 | 82.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.72 | 58.1% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |