| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 72.3% | 72% | +0.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| logistic | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| Felix Gill | Iliyan Radulov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1590 | 1474 |
| Surface Elo | 1590 | 1474 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | H | Alexander Vasilev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Jonas Forejtek | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Iliyan Radulov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Alexander Vasilev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Jay Clarke | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Pavel Lagutin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Felix Gill | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Pavel Lagutin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | H | Johannus Monday | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Mark Ceban | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Felix Gill | 2 - 0 | Iliyan Radulov |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.85 | 35.1% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.39 | 71.9% | 24 Sep 06:15 |