| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 70.1% | 85% | -14.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 68.4% | 31.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 80.3% | 19.6% |
| logistic | 71.5% | 28.5% |
| Marco Trungelliti | Tiago Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1703 | 1473 |
| Surface Elo | 1703 | 1473 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.13 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.13 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 3 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Alexander Ritschard | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Tiago Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Francesco Passaro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Marco Trungelliti | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Luka Mikrut | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Luka Mikrut | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 1 | Tiago Pereira |
| 07 Sep 2026 | Marco Trungelliti | 1 - 2 | Tiago Pereira |
| 29 Sep 2025 | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 0 | Tiago Pereira |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.50 | 22.2% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.18 | 84.8% | 20 Oct 06:15 |