| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 43.2% | 37% | +6.0% | |
| DC | Home or away | 74.9% | 74% | +0.6% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.0% | 51% | +4.0% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.5% | 48% | +6.5% | |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.6% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.2% | 28.2% | 30.6% |
| xgboost | 37.4% | 26.1% | 36.5% |
| logistic | 37.8% | 27.4% | 34.8% |
| Lille | Lens | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1771 | 1758 |
| Surface Elo | 1771 | 1758 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.70 |
| Season points per game | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 5 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 3 W · 2 D |
| 25 Oct | A | Monaco | 1 - 1 | D |
| 25 Oct | A | Monaco | 1 - 1 | D |
| 21 Oct | H | Galatasaray | 2 - 4 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Brest | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Brest | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Paris FC | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Paris FC | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Club Brugge | 0 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Troyes | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Troyes | 3 - 1 | W |
| 04 Apr 2026 | Lille | 3 - 0 | Lens |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Lens | 3 - 0 | Lille |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Lille | 1 - 0 | Lens |
| 26 Oct 2024 | Lens | 0 - 2 | Lille |
| 29 Mar 2024 | Lille | 2 - 1 | Lens |
| 08 Oct 2023 | Lens | 1 - 1 | Lille |
| 04 Mar 2023 | Lens | 1 - 1 | Lille |
| 09 Oct 2022 | Lille | 1 - 0 | Lens |
| 16 Apr 2022 | Lille | 1 - 2 | Lens |
| 18 Sep 2021 | Lens | 1 - 0 | Lille |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.63 | 38.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.53 | 28.3% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.81 | 35.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.87 | 53.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.98 | 50.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |