OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ Germany Bundesliga · Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC · finished
Union Berlin 0.80 0 - 0 2.60 Borussia Dortmund
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 55.9%61%-5.1%✗ miss
DCDraw or away 80.3%83%-2.7%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 73.4%78%-4.4%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 59.8%66%-6.5%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 58.1%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson17.6%22.3%60.1%
xgboost25.0%19.6%55.4%
logistic18.9%22.6%58.5%
Inputs the models saw
Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
Elo (pre-match)15461808
Surface Elo15461808
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.802.60
Form trend-0.400.40
Season points per game3.001.00
Season goals for / game1.002.00
Season goals against / game0.002.00
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W8 W · 0 D
Union Berlin: last 5
10 OctHElversberg1 - 0W
10 OctHElversberg1 - 0W
18 SepABayern München0 - 7L
11 SepHSchalke 041 - 3L
05 SepABayer Leverkusen0 - 4L
Borussia Dortmund: last 5
14 OctABodoe/Glimt0 - 1L
09 OctHWerder Bremen2 - 2D
09 OctHWerder Bremen2 - 2D
19 SepAStuttgart1 - 0W
12 SepHPaderborn3 - 0W
Head to head
24 Jan 2026Union Berlin0 - 3Borussia Dortmund
31 Aug 2025Borussia Dortmund3 - 0Union Berlin
22 Feb 2025Borussia Dortmund6 - 0Union Berlin
05 Oct 2024Union Berlin2 - 1Borussia Dortmund
02 Mar 2024Union Berlin0 - 2Borussia Dortmund
07 Oct 2023Borussia Dortmund4 - 2Union Berlin
08 Apr 2023Borussia Dortmund2 - 1Union Berlin
16 Oct 2022Union Berlin2 - 0Borussia Dortmund
13 Feb 2022Union Berlin0 - 3Borussia Dortmund
19 Sep 2021Borussia Dortmund4 - 2Union Berlin
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away1.6361.4%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.6121.7%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home5.3118.8%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5166.2%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.6537.7%16 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:55 UTC