| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.8% | 50% | -3.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.4% | 81% | -6.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.2% | 68% | -6.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.3% | 62% | -1.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.0% | 31.1% | 28.9% |
| xgboost | 48.2% | 26.5% | 25.3% |
| logistic | 41.6% | 27.3% | 31.1% |
| Cittadella | Padova | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1380 | 1389 |
| Surface Elo | 1380 | 1389 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 3.33 |
| Rest days | 528 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 19 Oct | H | FC Arzignano Valchiampo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Novara | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | US Albinoleffe | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Lecco | 3 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | ACD Ospitaletto | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Virtus Entella | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | AC Renate | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Virtus Entella | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Carrarese | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Carrarese | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Mar 2019 | Cittadella | 1 - 1 | Padova |
| 03 Nov 2018 | Padova | 0 - 0 | Cittadella |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.00 | 50.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |