| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.2% | 65% | -11.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 33.6% | 66.4% |
| logistic | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Luca Wiedenmann | Yanaki Milev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1477 | 1500 |
| Surface Elo | 1477 | 1500 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 35 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Aug | H | Sandro Kopp | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Jun | H | Ryan Seggerman | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Sep | H | Robert Strombachs | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Sep | A | Amaury Raynel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Aug | H | Nikolay Nedelchev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Tommaso Compagnucci | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Kirill Kivattsev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Georgii Kravchenko | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Valerio Aboian | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Juan Manuel La Serna | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.55 | 64.5% | 21 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 21 Sep 06:15 |