| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.7% | 58% | -4.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 34.8% | 65.2% |
| logistic | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | Aleksandar Kovacevic | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1629 | 1688 |
| Surface Elo | 1629 | 1688 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Sebastian Baez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Remy Bertola | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Etienne Donnet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Etienne Donnet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Jurij Rodionov | 0 - 3 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | James Duckworth | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | H | Matteo Berrettini | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | H | Matteo Berrettini | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Jan 2026 | Aleksandar Kovacevic | 2 - 1 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.73 | 57.8% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 25 Oct 06:15 |