| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.9% | 64% | -5.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| logistic | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| Laurent Lokoli | Ivan Ivanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1545 | 1468 |
| Surface Elo | 1545 | 1468 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | H | Gabriele Pennaforti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Sciahbasi, Matteo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Samuele Pieri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Pol Martin Tiffon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Samuele Pieri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Manuel Mazza | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Kirill Kivattsev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Adrian Andreev | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Filip Cristian Jianu | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Adrian Andreev | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.57 | 63.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |