| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 41.7% | 42% | +0.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.9% | 78% | -4.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.7% | 57% | -1.5% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.4% | 51% | +1.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 45.4% | 25.8% | 28.8% |
| xgboost | 39.0% | 27.4% | 33.6% |
| logistic | 34.7% | 29.3% | 36.0% |
| Holstein Kiel | Bielefeld | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1401 | 1432 |
| Surface Elo | 1401 | 1432 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 7 W · 2 D |
| 01 Nov | A | Greuther Furth | 0 - 1 | L |
| 01 Nov | A | Greuther Furth | 0 - 1 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | Hoffenheim | 1 - 1 | D |
| 25 Oct | H | Dresden | 3 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Dresden | 3 - 0 | W |
| 30 Oct | H | Braunschweig | 3 - 1 | W |
| 30 Oct | H | Braunschweig | 3 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Hertha Berlin | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Hertha Berlin | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Osnabruck | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Jan 2026 | Bielefeld | 2 - 2 | Holstein Kiel |
| 10 Aug 2025 | Holstein Kiel | 0 - 2 | Bielefeld |
| 02 Apr 2023 | Holstein Kiel | 2 - 3 | Bielefeld |
| 17 Sep 2022 | Bielefeld | 4 - 2 | Holstein Kiel |
| 30 May 2020 | Holstein Kiel | 1 - 2 | Bielefeld |
| 03 Nov 2019 | Bielefeld | 2 - 1 | Holstein Kiel |
| 19 May 2019 | Bielefeld | 1 - 0 | Holstein Kiel |
| 14 Dec 2018 | Holstein Kiel | 1 - 2 | Bielefeld |
| 01 Apr 2018 | Bielefeld | 1 - 1 | Holstein Kiel |
| 21 Oct 2017 | Holstein Kiel | 2 - 1 | Bielefeld |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 07 Nov 12:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 07 Nov 12:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.55 | 39.2% | 07 Nov 12:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.85 | 54.0% | 07 Nov 12:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.95 | 51.3% | 07 Nov 12:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.87 | 53.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.90 | 52.6% | 07 Nov 06:15 |