| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.2% | 53% | -5.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.1% | 81% | -6.5% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 59.9% | 71% | -10.9% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 61% | -4.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 31.7% | 29.8% | 38.5% |
| xgboost | 36.4% | 28.6% | 35.0% |
| logistic | 34.7% | 29.1% | 36.2% |
| Exeter | Oxford | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1406 | 1515 |
| Surface Elo | 1406 | 1515 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 17 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Rotherham | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Rotherham | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Bristol Rovers | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Bristol Rvs | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Cheltenham | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Cambridge | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Cambridge | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Burton | 3 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Leicester | 4 - 0 | W |
| 01 Sep | A | Huddersfield | 1 - 3 | L |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Exeter | 1 - 2 | Oxford |
| 23 Sep 2023 | Oxford | 3 - 0 | Exeter |
| 01 Jan 2023 | Oxford | 0 - 1 | Exeter |
| 15 Oct 2022 | Exeter | 2 - 4 | Oxford |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.94 | 51.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.60 | 27.8% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |