| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.2% | 55% | -7.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 74.7% | 82% | -7.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 63.4% | 74% | -10.9% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.5% | 56% | +7.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.6% | 26.8% | 32.5% |
| xgboost | 44.3% | 30.7% | 25.1% |
| logistic | 45.3% | 28.8% | 25.9% |
| Verona | Catanzaro | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1449 | 1425 |
| Surface Elo | 1449 | 1425 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 11 Oct | A | Modena | 2 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Modena | 2 - 3 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Lugano | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | L.R. Vicenza | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Vicenza | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Mantova | 1 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Mantova | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Cosenza | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Sampdoria | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Sampdoria Genoa | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.20 | 23.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.82 | 54.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.77 | 56.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |