| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.3% | 44% | +2.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 77.2% | 79% | -1.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.2% | 59% | -0.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.9% | 39% | +16.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.3% | 27.8% | 22.9% |
| xgboost | 46.4% | 23.0% | 30.6% |
| logistic | 29.9% | 22.9% | 47.3% |
| FC Emmen | Almere City | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1422 | 1407 |
| Surface Elo | 1422 | 1407 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1238 | 517 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | A | FC Dordrecht | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Waalwijk | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | TOP Oss | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 May | A | Utrecht | 2 - 3 | L |
| 21 May | H | Feyenoord | 1 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | De Treffers Groesbeek | 2 - 3 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | PSV Eindhoven | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Volendam | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Volendam | 4 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | BVV Barendrecht | 1 - 4 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.85 | 35.1% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.48 | 67.6% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |