| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.2% | 38% | +9.8% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 75.3% | 66% | +9.1% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 63.9% | 52% | +12.4% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.5% | 67% | +1.8% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.9% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 54.2% | 26.0% | 19.8% |
| xgboost | 37.3% | 28.1% | 34.6% |
| logistic | 45.8% | 28.5% | 25.7% |
| Ascoli | Avellino | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1484 | 1443 |
| Surface Elo | 1484 | 1443 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.25 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.25 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 27 Oct | H | Sampdoria Genoa | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Sampdoria | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Catanzaro | 6 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Catanzaro | 6 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | SS Monopoli | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Virtus Entella | 1 - 1 | D |
| 27 Oct | A | Virtus Entella | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Padova | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Padova | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Cesena | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Ascoli | 3 - 1 | Avellino |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Ascoli | 3 - 1 | Avellino |
| 05 May 2018 | Ascoli | 1 - 1 | Avellino |
| 16 Dec 2017 | Avellino | 1 - 1 | Ascoli |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |