OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-10
⚽ Scottish Premiership · Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Hearts 2.00 5 - 0 0.80 St Mirren
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 60.6%70%-9.8%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 85.2%90%-5.2%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 79.0%86%-7.5%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 53.6%65%-11.8%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 52.7%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson62.9%22.6%14.5%
xgboost73.1%17.6%9.3%
logistic68.4%19.8%11.7%
Inputs the models saw
HeartsSt Mirren
Elo (pre-match)17941579
Surface Elo17941579
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.000.80
Form trend0.700.50
Season points per game1.861.43
Season goals for / game2.001.14
Season goals against / game1.141.29
Rest days2021
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W3 W · 2 D
Hearts: last 5
19 SepAKilmarnock1 - 1D
15 SepAFalkirk1 - 2L
06 SepHDundee2 - 1W
03 SepAHibernian3 - 1W
29 AugHSt Johnstone2 - 1W
St Mirren: last 5
26 SepACumbernauld Colts FC4 - 2W
22 SepAClydebank FC1 - 2L
19 SepHDundee United0 - 3L
19 SepHDundee United0 - 3L
09 SepARangers0 - 1L
Head to head
03 Feb 2026St Mirren1 - 0Hearts
14 Jan 2026Hearts2 - 0St Mirren
29 Oct 2025St Mirren2 - 2Hearts
26 Feb 2025Hearts3 - 1St Mirren
19 Oct 2024Hearts4 - 0St Mirren
21 Sep 2024St Mirren2 - 1Hearts
15 May 2024St Mirren2 - 2Hearts
06 Apr 2024St Mirren1 - 2Hearts
23 Dec 2023Hearts2 - 0St Mirren
23 Sep 2023St Mirren1 - 0Hearts
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away6.0016.7%10 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw5.2519.1%10 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home1.3971.9%10 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.5763.7%10 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.3842.0%10 Oct 15:00
Generated 2026-10-30 17:07 UTC