OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-11-09

NFL · Monday 09 November 2026, 01:20 UTC · finished

Chicago Bears – 27 - 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	70.1%	72%	-1.8%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	70.1%	29.9%

Inputs the models saw

	Chicago Bears	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
playoff	0.00
elo diff	0.22
form diff	0.38
rest diff	-0.19
home field	1.00
point diff	0.24
opponent strength diff	0.06
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-11-08T01:20:00+00:00

Chicago Bears: last 5

03 Nov	A	Seattle Seahawks	34 - 17	W
23 Oct	H	New England Patriots	30 - 24	W
18 Oct	A	Atlanta Falcons	31 - 23	W
11 Oct	A	Green Bay Packers	7 - 31	L
04 Oct	H	New York Jets	23 - 12	W

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: last 5

01 Nov	H	Atlanta Falcons	16 - 0	W
25 Oct	A	Carolina Panthers	43 - 13	W
18 Oct	H	Pittsburgh Steelers	19 - 26	L
09 Oct	A	Dallas Cowboys	24 - 16	W
04 Oct	H	Green Bay Packers	14 - 17	L

Head to head

17 Sep 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27 - 17	Chicago Bears
24 Oct 2021	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	38 - 3	Chicago Bears
09 Oct 2020	Chicago Bears	20 - 19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30 Sep 2018	Chicago Bears	48 - 10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
17 Sep 2017	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	29 - 7	Chicago Bears
13 Nov 2016	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	36 - 10	Chicago Bears
27 Dec 2015	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	21 - 26	Chicago Bears
23 Nov 2014	Chicago Bears	21 - 13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
23 Oct 2011	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	18 - 24	Chicago Bears
21 Sep 2008	Chicago Bears	24 - 27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.40	71.4%	08 Nov 20:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	3.18	31.4%	08 Nov 20:20

Generated 2026-11-12 22:01 UTC