| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 69.6% | 69% | +0.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 22.2% | 77.7% |
| logistic | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Nuno Borges | Novak Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1866 | 2088 |
| Surface Elo | 1866 | 2088 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 30 | 31 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | A | Novak Djokovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Learner Tien | 0 - 3 | L |
| 20 Aug | A | Brandon Nakashima | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Aug | A | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | Francisco Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Nuno Borges | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Mariano Navone | 2 - 3 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | Thiago Agustin Tirante | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Jul | A | Jannik Sinner | 0 - 3 | L |
| 07 Jul | A | Felix Auger Aliassime | 3 - 2 | W |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Novak Djokovic | 2 - 0 | Nuno Borges |
| 03 Nov 2025 | Novak Djokovic | 2 - 0 | Nuno Borges |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.44 | 69.4% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.90 | 34.5% | 29 Sep 06:15 |