| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.7% | 61% | -7.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.6% | 88% | -8.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 71.9% | 81% | -9.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% | 54% | +4.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 57.1% | 23.3% | 19.6% |
| xgboost | 51.4% | 27.2% | 21.4% |
| logistic | 51.8% | 27.1% | 21.1% |
| Burgos | Celta B | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1573 | 1460 |
| Surface Elo | 1573 | 1460 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.50 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.75 | 1.08 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.42 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.08 | 1.92 |
| Rest days | 5 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 01 Nov | H | Castellon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 01 Nov | H | Castellon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Oct | A | CD Laredo | 4 - 2 | W |
| 26 Oct | A | Andorra | 3 - 2 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Sabadell | 1 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Cordoba | 2 - 2 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Cordoba | 2 - 2 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | Girona | 1 - 5 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Girona | 1 - 5 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Tenerife | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 07 Nov 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 07 Nov 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.71 | 58.5% | 07 Nov 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 07 Nov 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.70 | 58.8% | 07 Nov 13:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.75 | 21.1% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.73 | 57.8% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.89 | 52.9% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.89 | 52.9% | 07 Nov 06:15 |