| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.8% | 58% | -6.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.4% | 82% | -5.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 67.3% | 75% | -7.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 64% | -3.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 61.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.3% | 25.5% | 24.3% |
| xgboost | 53.1% | 25.7% | 21.2% |
| logistic | 46.1% | 27.6% | 26.3% |
| Sociedad | Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1643 | 1646 |
| Surface Elo | 1643 | 1646 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.73 | 1.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.82 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.82 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 2 W · 5 D |
| 05 Nov | H | Lyon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 01 Nov | A | Athletic Club | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Nov | A | Athletic Club | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Girona | 1 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Levante | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Nov | H | Fuenlabrada | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Mexico FC | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Celta | 3 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Celta | 3 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | RC Recreativo de Huelva | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Apr 2026 | Vallecano | 3 - 3 | Sociedad |
| 05 Oct 2025 | Sociedad | 0 - 1 | Vallecano |
| 16 Mar 2025 | Vallecano | 2 - 2 | Sociedad |
| 18 Aug 2024 | Sociedad | 1 - 2 | Vallecano |
| 27 Jan 2024 | Sociedad | 0 - 0 | Vallecano |
| 29 Oct 2023 | Vallecano | 2 - 2 | Sociedad |
| 22 Apr 2023 | Sociedad | 2 - 1 | Vallecano |
| 21 Jan 2023 | Vallecano | 0 - 2 | Sociedad |
| 01 May 2022 | Vallecano | 1 - 1 | Sociedad |
| 22 Aug 2021 | Sociedad | 1 - 0 | Vallecano |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.00 | 25.0% | 08 Nov 15:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 08 Nov 15:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.83 | 54.6% | 08 Nov 15:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 08 Nov 15:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 08 Nov 15:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.25 | 23.5% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.14 | 24.1% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.84 | 54.4% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.55 | 64.5% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 08 Nov 06:15 |