| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 46.9% | 36% | +10.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.4% | 72% | +2.9% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 59.1% | 52% | +7.1% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 49% | +4.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.3% | 28.0% | 33.7% |
| xgboost | 32.6% | 29.7% | 37.7% |
| logistic | 35.5% | 28.2% | 36.3% |
| Malaga | Espanol | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1542 | 1551 |
| Surface Elo | 1542 | 1551 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 19 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 4 W · 0 D |
| 04 Oct | H | FC Marbelli | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Getafe | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Sep | H | Villarreal | 1 - 3 | L |
| 13 Sep | A | Celta | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Sep | H | Levante | 0 - 0 | D |
| 18 Sep | H | Elche | 1 - 3 | L |
| 15 Sep | A | Vallecano | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Osasuna | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep | H | Sevilla | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | Sociedad | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 May 2021 | Espanol | 3 - 0 | Malaga |
| 02 Nov 2020 | Malaga | 0 - 3 | Espanol |
| 13 May 2018 | Espanol | 4 - 1 | Malaga |
| 08 Jan 2018 | Malaga | 0 - 1 | Espanol |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.72 | 36.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.86 | 35.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.83 | 54.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |