| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 46.7% | 34% | +12.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.0% | 75% | -2.2% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 59.8% | 48% | +12.0% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 51% | +9.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.2% | 30.4% | 33.4% |
| xgboost | 29.0% | 34.4% | 36.5% |
| logistic | 35.0% | 28.7% | 36.3% |
| Sudtirol | Ascoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1444 | 1460 |
| Surface Elo | 1444 | 1460 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 20 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Arezzo | 4 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Arezzo | 4 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Reggiana | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Modena | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Catanzaro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | SC Trestina | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Avellino | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Avellino | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Napoli | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Padova | 0 - 1 | L |
| 04 Feb 2024 | Ascoli | 1 - 2 | Sudtirol |
| 02 Sep 2023 | Sudtirol | 3 - 1 | Ascoli |
| 15 Apr 2023 | Ascoli | 1 - 0 | Sudtirol |
| 27 Nov 2022 | Sudtirol | 2 - 2 | Ascoli |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.98 | 50.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.77 | 56.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |