| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.6% | 68% | -2.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 69.8% | 30.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| logistic | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| Tommy Paul | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1986 | 1802 |
| Surface Elo | 1986 | 1802 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.71 |
| Rest days | 10 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Alejandro Tabilo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Alejandro Tabilo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Sep | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 3 | L |
| 04 Sep | A | Alexander Bublik | 3 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Tommy Paul | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Valentin Royer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Valentin Royer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Jiri Lehecka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Jiri Lehecka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 0 - 2 | Tommy Paul |
| 18 Aug 2026 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 1 - 2 | Tommy Paul |
| 02 Apr 2026 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 1 - 2 | Tommy Paul |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.75 | 36.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.47 | 68.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |