| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.2% | 64% | -4.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 81.0% | 85% | -4.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 75.5% | 81% | -5.1% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 67% | -7.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 25.8% | 25.7% | 48.5% |
| xgboost | 15.7% | 14.9% | 69.5% |
| logistic | 15.5% | 23.2% | 61.2% |
| Watford | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1448 | 1647 |
| Surface Elo | 1448 | 1647 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.29 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.17 | 1.29 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 4 W · 1 D |
| 03 Nov | H | Lincoln | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | H | Lincoln | 1 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Norwich | 2 - 3 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Norwich | 2 - 3 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 - 3 | L |
| 04 Nov | A | Wrexham | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Nov | A | Wrexham | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Charlton | 3 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Charlton | 3 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Bolton | 5 - 1 | W |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Middlesbrough | 5 - 1 | Watford |
| 01 Nov 2025 | Watford | 3 - 0 | Middlesbrough |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Middlesbrough | 0 - 1 | Watford |
| 05 Oct 2024 | Watford | 2 - 1 | Middlesbrough |
| 04 May 2024 | Middlesbrough | 3 - 1 | Watford |
| 30 Sep 2023 | Watford | 2 - 3 | Middlesbrough |
| 28 Jan 2023 | Middlesbrough | 2 - 0 | Watford |
| 30 Aug 2022 | Watford | 2 - 1 | Middlesbrough |
| 05 Apr 2021 | Middlesbrough | 1 - 1 | Watford |
| 11 Sep 2020 | Watford | 1 - 0 | Middlesbrough |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.57 | 63.7% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.77 | 21.0% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 5.40 | 18.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.51 | 66.2% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.65 | 37.7% | 06 Nov 06:15 |