| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.2% | 45% | +2.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 74.0% | 73% | +0.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 63.7% | 61% | +2.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 46.9% | 46% | +0.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 33.4% | 25.4% | 41.2% |
| xgboost | 45.4% | 38.3% | 16.3% |
| logistic | 50.7% | 28.1% | 21.2% |
| Rochdale | Swindon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1570 | 1444 |
| Surface Elo | 1570 | 1444 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.70 |
| Season points per game | 1.25 | 1.38 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.38 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 3 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Fleetwood Town | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Fleetwood Town | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Liverpool | 3 - 3 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Oldham | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Oldham | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Accrington | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Accrington | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Sep | H | Newport County | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Salford | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Salford | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Mar 2023 | Rochdale | 4 - 4 | Swindon |
| 20 Aug 2022 | Swindon | 3 - 0 | Rochdale |
| 02 Apr 2022 | Rochdale | 0 - 0 | Swindon |
| 16 Oct 2021 | Swindon | 2 - 2 | Rochdale |
| 13 Apr 2021 | Rochdale | 2 - 1 | Swindon |
| 12 Sep 2020 | Swindon | 3 - 1 | Rochdale |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.85 | 35.1% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.65 | 60.6% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.95 | 33.9% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.61 | 62.1% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 03 Oct 06:15 |