| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.0% | 71% | +0.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 76.4% | 23.5% |
| logistic | 69.2% | 30.8% |
| Karolina Muchova | Nikola Bartunkova | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1928 | 1710 |
| Surface Elo | 1928 | 1710 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Naomi Osaka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Liudmila Samsonova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Katie Boulter | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Nikola Bartunkova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Naomi Osaka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Sinja Kraus | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Aryna Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Magdalena Frech | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Mirra Andreeva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Karolina Muchova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Karolina Muchova | 0 - 2 | Nikola Bartunkova |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.05 | 32.8% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.40 | 71.4% | 08 Oct 06:15 |