| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 45.5% | 46% | -0.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.3% | 77% | -0.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 56.4% | 62% | -5.9% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 60% | -5.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 17.8% | 25.8% | 56.4% |
| xgboost | 42.9% | 23.4% | 33.7% |
| logistic | 46.7% | 28.2% | 25.2% |
| Coventry | Newcastle | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1660 | 1712 |
| Surface Elo | 1660 | 1712 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Rest days | 23 | 23 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | H | Brighton | 0 - 5 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Manchester City | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Hull | 0 - 1 | L |
| 21 Aug | A | Arsenal | 0 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Hull | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Leeds | 1 - 4 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Bournemouth | 2 - 2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | Tottenham | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | Liverpool | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.95 | 51.3% | 12 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 12 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.60 | 27.8% | 12 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 12 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.38 | 42.0% | 12 Oct 20:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.29 | 43.7% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.69 | 27.1% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.20 | 31.2% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 12 Oct 06:15 |