| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.6% | 38% | +20.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 82.0% | 65% | +17.2% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 73.6% | 50% | +23.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.8% | 61% | -15.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 46.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.6% | 27.5% | 27.9% |
| xgboost | 42.9% | 32.0% | 25.1% |
| logistic | 53.3% | 27.8% | 18.9% |
| Salford | Sheffield Weds | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1503 | 1404 |
| Surface Elo | 1503 | 1404 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | H | Swindon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Swindon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Rotherham | 3 - 3 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Port Vale | 1 - 0 | W |
| 01 Sep | H | Newport County | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Stockport | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Stockport | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Wigan | 0 - 0 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Peterboro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Sep | A | Wycombe | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.64 | 61.0% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 22 Sep 06:15 |