| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 56.6% | 51% | +5.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.9% | 40.2% |
| xgboost | 36.8% | 62.5% |
| logistic | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| Ottawa Senators | Washington Capitals | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1548 | 1569 |
| Surface Elo | 1548 | 1569 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.22 | 3.53 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 08 Nov | H | Utah Utah Hockey Club | 4 - 2 | W |
| 05 Nov | A | Buffalo Sabres | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Nov | A | Anaheim Ducks | 3 - 6 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | San Jose Sharks | 5 - 1 | W |
| 30 Oct | A | Los Angeles Kings | 5 - 6 | L |
| 07 Nov | H | Florida Panthers | 4 - 3 | W |
| 04 Nov | H | Dallas Stars | 5 - 6 | L |
| 01 Nov | H | Minnesota Wild | 1 - 5 | L |
| 30 Oct | A | Nashville Predators | 4 - 3 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Philadelphia Flyers | 5 - 2 | W |
| 18 Mar 2026 | Washington Capitals | 4 - 1 | Ottawa Senators |
| 01 Jan 2026 | Ottawa Senators | 4 - 3 | Washington Capitals |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Washington Capitals | 1 - 7 | Ottawa Senators |
| 03 Mar 2025 | Washington Capitals | 5 - 4 | Ottawa Senators |
| 31 Jan 2025 | Ottawa Senators | 5 - 4 | Washington Capitals |
| 17 Jan 2025 | Ottawa Senators | 0 - 1 | Washington Capitals |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.95 | 51.3% | 10 Nov 21:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 1.95 | 51.3% | 10 Nov 21:20 |