| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.5% | 66% | -3.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 65.9% | 34.0% |
| logistic | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| Gianluca Cadenasso | Massimo Giunta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1562 | 1449 |
| Surface Elo | 1562 | 1449 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Filippo Moroni | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Massimo Giunta | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Filippo Moroni | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Vitaliy Sachko | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Lorenzo Angelini | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Pierluigi Basile | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Pierluigi Basile | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Carlos Taberner | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Gianluca Cadenasso | 0 - 2 | Massimo Giunta |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.51 | 66.2% | 07 Oct 06:15 |