| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.8% | 38% | +14.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 53.1% | 46.8% |
| logistic | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| Alex Hernandez | Franco Ribero | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1448 | 1439 |
| Surface Elo | 1448 | 1439 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | H | Gustavo Heide | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Matteo Covato | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Juan Sebastian Osorio | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Dorokhov, Ivan | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Felipe De Dios | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Carlos Maria Zarate | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Jesse Flores | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Radu Mihai Papoe | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Jun | H | Pavel Kotov | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.65 | 37.7% | 19 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.45 | 69.0% | 19 Oct 06:15 |