| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.5% | 37% | +10.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.2% | 76% | -2.3% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 60.2% | 52% | +8.3% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.4% | 57% | -4.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 28.2% | 30.4% | 41.5% |
| xgboost | 31.7% | 30.0% | 38.3% |
| logistic | 39.6% | 29.3% | 31.0% |
| Shrewsbury | Colchester | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1360 | 1445 |
| Surface Elo | 1360 | 1445 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | A | Tranmere | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Crewe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Crewe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Northampton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Fleetwood Town | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Peterborough United | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Cheltenham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Cheltenham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Crewe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Swindon | 1 - 3 | L |
| 07 Feb 2026 | Colchester | 2 - 0 | Shrewsbury |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Shrewsbury | 0 - 2 | Colchester |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.99 | 50.2% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.76 | 56.8% | 25 Sep 06:15 |