| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.8% | 86% | -14.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 68.3% | 31.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 78.1% | 21.8% |
| logistic | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| Francisco Comesana | Nick Hardt | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1605 | 1551 |
| Surface Elo | 1605 | 1551 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Nick Hardt | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Guido Ivan Justo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Francisco Comesana | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | H | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Francisco Comesana | 2 - 1 | Nick Hardt |
| 29 Jul 2024 | Francisco Comesana | 2 - 1 | Nick Hardt |
| 02 Oct 2023 | Francisco Comesana | 2 - 1 | Nick Hardt |
| 02 May 2022 | Francisco Comesana | 0 - 2 | Nick Hardt |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.85 | 20.6% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.16 | 86.2% | 12 Oct 06:15 |