OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-20
🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Sunday 20 September 2026, 18:45 UTC · finished
Marseille 1.20 1 - 2 1.00 Paris Saint Germain
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 62.6%71%-8.2%✓ hit
DCHome or away 85.2%85%+0.1%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 75.1%86%-11.0%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 56.4%73%-16.9%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 53.3%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson28.4%23.3%48.4%
xgboost31.2%30.2%38.6%
logistic26.1%24.7%49.2%
Inputs the models saw
MarseilleParis Saint Germain
Elo (pre-match)16881848
Surface Elo16881848
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.201.00
Form trend0.90-0.50
Season points per game0.751.25
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days86
Head-to-head (last 10)1 W8 W · 1 D
Marseille: last 5
11 SepARennes0 - 1L
06 SepHParis FC2 - 3L
30 AugAMonaco0 - 2L
21 AugHStrasbourg4 - 0W
17 MayHRennes3 - 1W
Paris Saint Germain: last 5
13 SepABrest1 - 0W
04 SepHMonaco1 - 2L
28 AugALille2 - 2D
23 AugARennes2 - 2D
17 MayAParis FC1 - 2L
Head to head
08 Feb 2026Paris Saint Germain5 - 0Marseille
22 Sep 2025Marseille1 - 0Paris Saint Germain
16 Mar 2025Paris Saint Germain3 - 1Marseille
27 Oct 2024Marseille0 - 3Paris Saint Germain
31 Mar 2024Marseille0 - 2Paris Saint Germain
24 Sep 2023Paris Saint Germain4 - 0Marseille
26 Feb 2023Marseille0 - 3Paris Saint Germain
16 Oct 2022Paris Saint Germain1 - 0Marseille
17 Apr 2022Paris Saint Germain2 - 1Marseille
24 Oct 2021Marseille0 - 0Paris Saint Germain
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away1.4270.4%20 Sep 19:45
Bet3651X2draw5.0020.0%20 Sep 19:45
Bet3651X2home6.5015.4%20 Sep 19:45
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.3673.5%20 Sep 19:45
Bet365O/U 2.5under3.2031.2%20 Sep 19:45
SportyBet1X2away1.4469.4%20 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw5.6917.6%20 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home6.7814.8%20 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.3673.5%20 Sep 06:16
SportyBetO/U 2.5under3.2530.8%20 Sep 06:16
Generated 2026-10-30 20:32 UTC