| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.2% | 15% | +46.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 83.4% | 33% | +50.0% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 77.4% | 18% | +59.1% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% | 75% | -12.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 7.1% | 12.9% | 80.0% |
| xgboost | 28.1% | 21.1% | 50.7% |
| logistic | 7.6% | 15.0% | 77.4% |
| Almere City | PSV Eindhoven | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1407 | 1841 |
| Surface Elo | 1407 | 1841 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 509 | 19 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 4 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Volendam | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Volendam | 4 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | BVV Barendrecht | 1 - 4 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | FC Dordrecht | 2 - 3 | L |
| 18 May | A | AZ Alkmaar | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Graafschap | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | NAC Breda | 2 - 4 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Twente | 2 - 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Twente | 2 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Vitesse | 1 - 3 | L |
| 12 Apr 2025 | PSV Eindhoven | 5 - 0 | Almere City |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Almere City | 1 - 7 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 27 Jan 2024 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 - 0 | Almere City |
| 23 Sep 2023 | Almere City | 0 - 4 | PSV Eindhoven |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.40 | 15.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.40 | 18.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.39 | 71.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.34 | 74.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.20 | 31.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |