| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 49.8% | 44% | +5.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.5% | 78% | -2.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 63.2% | 59% | +4.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 69% | -8.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 28.9% | 25.7% | 45.3% |
| xgboost | 29.1% | 29.2% | 41.7% |
| logistic | 34.1% | 25.6% | 40.3% |
| Mainz | Bayer Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1632 | 1733 |
| Surface Elo | 1632 | 1733 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 21 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 6 W · 2 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Borussia M´gladbach | 4 - 3 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 - 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 - 3 | L |
| 06 Sep | A | Hamburg | 5 - 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Paderborn | 0 - 0 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | RB Leipzig | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Augsburg | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Union Berlin | 4 - 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | Elversberg | 2 - 3 | L |
| 16 May | H | Hamburg | 1 - 1 | D |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 - 1 | Mainz |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Mainz | 3 - 4 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 17 May 2025 | Mainz | 2 - 2 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 14 Jan 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 - 0 | Mainz |
| 23 Feb 2024 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 - 1 | Mainz |
| 30 Sep 2023 | Mainz | 0 - 3 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 19 Feb 2023 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 - 3 | Mainz |
| 27 Aug 2022 | Mainz | 0 - 3 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 18 Feb 2022 | Mainz | 3 - 2 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 25 Sep 2021 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 - 0 | Mainz |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.00 | 33.3% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.38 | 42.0% | 10 Oct 14:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.96 | 25.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.00 | 33.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.45 | 69.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.85 | 35.1% | 10 Oct 06:15 |