| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 49.6% | 57% | -7.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.9% | 81% | -5.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 62.7% | 76% | -13.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.1% | 56% | +7.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.1% | 27.9% | 34.0% |
| xgboost | 29.0% | 24.5% | 46.5% |
| logistic | 27.9% | 25.9% | 46.1% |
| Alloa | Hamilton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1439 | 1572 |
| Surface Elo | 1439 | 1572 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 5 W · 1 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Ross County | 1 - 4 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Ross County | 1 - 4 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Gala Fairydean Rovers | 2 - 2 | D |
| 22 Sep | H | Hibernian | 4 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | East Kilbride | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Peterhead | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Peterhead | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Kilmarnock | 3 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Cowdenbeath | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Queen of Sth | 4 - 1 | W |
| 08 Aug 2026 | Hamilton | 1 - 0 | Alloa |
| 11 Apr 2026 | Hamilton | 1 - 0 | Alloa |
| 21 Feb 2026 | Alloa | 3 - 0 | Hamilton |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Hamilton | 1 - 0 | Alloa |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Alloa | 1 - 0 | Hamilton |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Alloa | 0 - 1 | Hamilton |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Hamilton | 1 - 2 | Alloa |
| 09 Dec 2023 | Alloa | 0 - 0 | Hamilton |
| 16 Sep 2023 | Hamilton | 2 - 1 | Alloa |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.80 | 55.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.00 | 25.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.77 | 56.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.98 | 50.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |