| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.3% | 62% | +0.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 64.8% | 35.1% |
| logistic | 65.1% | 34.9% |
| Michael Mmoh | Luca Nardi | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1704 | 1617 |
| Surface Elo | 1704 | 1617 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.20 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Laslo Djere | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Luca Nardi | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Daniel Rincon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Laslo Djere | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Laslo Djere | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | August Holmgren | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Michael Mmoh | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Lorenzo Carboni | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | August Holmgren | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Luca Nardi | 2 - 0 | Michael Mmoh |
| 20 Nov 2023 | Luca Nardi | 1 - 2 | Michael Mmoh |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.60 | 62.5% | 15 Oct 06:15 |