| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.6% | 38% | +14.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| logistic | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| Hamish Stewart | Daniel Rincon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1549 | 1635 |
| Surface Elo | 1549 | 1635 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 65 | 9 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 14 Sep | A | Daniel Rincon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Jul | H | Paul Inchauspe | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Jun | H | Thiago Agustin Tirante | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Jun | H | Leandro Riedi | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 May | H | Ilya Ivashka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Titouan Droguet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Hamish Stewart | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Ugo Blanchet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Manas Dhamne | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Sep | H | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Daniel Rincon | 2 - 1 | Hamish Stewart |
| 26 Aug 2025 | Daniel Rincon | 2 - 1 | Hamish Stewart |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.46 | 68.5% | 16 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 16 Sep 06:15 |