| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 49.5% | 41% | +8.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.6% | 79% | -2.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 61.9% | 56% | +6.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 55% | -2.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.4% | 27.3% | 26.3% |
| xgboost | 31.7% | 24.0% | 44.3% |
| logistic | 22.5% | 24.1% | 53.4% |
| Maidstone | Truro | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1226 | 1323 |
| Surface Elo | 1226 | 1323 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1245 | 154 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Cray Wanderers | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Apr | A | Chesterfield | 0 - 4 | L |
| 22 Apr | H | Notts County | 2 - 5 | L |
| 15 Apr | A | Halifax | 0 - 3 | L |
| 10 Apr | H | Barnet | 0 - 0 | D |
| 22 Sep | H | Merthyr Town | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Merthyr Town | 1 - 1 | D |
| 25 Apr | A | Aldershot | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | Carlisle | 0 - 1 | L |
| 11 Apr | A | Boston Utd | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.81 | 55.2% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 26 Sep 06:15 |