| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.5% | 35% | +23.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 86.2% | 64% | +22.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 80.6% | 47% | +33.2% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.0% | 49% | +7.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 11.7% | 21.2% | 67.1% |
| xgboost | 17.3% | 29.2% | 53.5% |
| logistic | 10.4% | 21.6% | 68.0% |
| Bari | Napoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1407 | 1794 |
| Surface Elo | 1407 | 1794 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.70 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 161 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | FC Giugliano 1928 | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Latina Calcio | 0 - 0 | D |
| 04 Oct | A | Salernitana | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Cosenza | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | ASD Sorrento 1945 | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Villarreal | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Frosinone | 3 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Frosinone | 3 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Pisa | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Fiorentina | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.85 | 35.1% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |