| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 41.0% | 42% | -0.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.4% | 77% | -1.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 53.5% | 56% | -2.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.1% | 65% | +4.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 61.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.4% | 24.0% | 36.7% |
| xgboost | 39.9% | 25.3% | 34.8% |
| logistic | 26.9% | 27.8% | 45.2% |
| Excelsior | Go Ahead Eagles | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1471 | 1513 |
| Surface Elo | 1471 | 1513 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.20 | 1.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 4.20 | 2.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 4 W · 1 D |
| 01 Nov | H | Twente | 0 - 9 | L |
| 01 Nov | H | Twente | 0 - 9 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | Heerenveen | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Oct | A | MVV Maastricht | 3 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Den Haag | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Cambuur | 0 - 4 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Koninklijke HFC | 5 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Telstar | 3 - 2 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Telstar | 3 - 2 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Zwolle | 1 - 4 | L |
| 01 Mar 2026 | Excelsior | 0 - 1 | Go Ahead Eagles |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Go Ahead Eagles | 2 - 0 | Excelsior |
| 30 Mar 2024 | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 - 0 | Excelsior |
| 16 Dec 2023 | Excelsior | 1 - 1 | Go Ahead Eagles |
| 14 Apr 2023 | Excelsior | 2 - 1 | Go Ahead Eagles |
| 29 Oct 2022 | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 - 1 | Excelsior |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.81 | 26.2% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.85 | 35.1% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.54 | 64.9% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.55 | 39.2% | 06 Nov 06:15 |