| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.4% | 75% | -9.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| logistic | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| Marta Kostyuk | Liudmila Samsonova | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1915 | 1641 |
| Surface Elo | 1915 | 1641 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 18 | 18 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 13 Sep | A | Liudmila Samsonova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Linda Noskova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Sloane Stephens | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Storm Hunter | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Sep | A | Kayla Day | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | H | Peyton Stearns | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Sep | H | Marta Kostyuk | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Kayla Day | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Elsa Jacquemot | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Liudmila Samsonova | 2 - 1 | Marta Kostyuk |
| 02 Oct 2023 | Liudmila Samsonova | 2 - 1 | Marta Kostyuk |
| 31 Jul 2023 | Liudmila Samsonova | 2 - 0 | Marta Kostyuk |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.45 | 29.0% | 17 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.34 | 74.6% | 17 Sep 06:15 |