OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-01

🎾 ATP Challenger Curitiba, Brazil Men Singles · Thursday 01 October 2026, 17:30 UTC · finished

Pedro Boscardin Dias 2.40 1 - 0 1.20 Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	51.7%	48%	+4.0%	✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	44.2%	55.8%
poisson	37.0%	35.3%
xgboost	49.5%	50.4%
logistic	53.8%	46.2%

Inputs the models saw

	Pedro Boscardin Dias	Genaro Alberto Olivieri
Elo (pre-match)	1595	1572
Surface Elo	1595	1572
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.40	1.20
Form trend	0.30	0.00
Season points per game	2.40	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.40	1.50
Season goals against / game	0.40	1.00
Rest days	2	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	1 W	1 W · 0 D

Pedro Boscardin Dias: last 5

29 Sep	A	Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto	2 - 0	W
28 Sep	A	Gustavo Heide	0 - 2	L
28 Sep	A	Luis "Guto" Miguel	2 - 1	W
28 Sep	A	Genaro Alberto Olivieri	2 - 0	W
28 Sep	H	Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto	2 - 0	W

Genaro Alberto Olivieri: last 5

29 Sep	A	Lucas Andrade Da Silva	2 - 0	W
28 Sep	H	Pedro Boscardin Dias	0 - 2	L
28 Sep	H	Lucas Andrade Da Silva	2 - 0	W
22 Sep	H	Valerio Aboian	1 - 2	L
21 Sep	H	Valerio Aboian	1 - 2	L

Head to head

28 Sep 2026	Genaro Alberto Olivieri	0 - 2	Pedro Boscardin Dias
13 Apr 2026	Genaro Alberto Olivieri	1 - 2	Pedro Boscardin Dias
19 Jan 2026	Genaro Alberto Olivieri	2 - 0	Pedro Boscardin Dias

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	2.10	47.6%	01 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.69	59.2%	01 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 18:22 UTC