OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-25
⚽ Netherlands Eredivisie · Sunday 25 October 2026, 19:00 UTC · finished
AZ Alkmaar 1.60 0 - 2 2.00 Twente
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 46.4%45%+1.3%✗ miss
DCHome or away 75.3%78%-2.9%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 60.1%59%+0.7%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.8%68%-11.8%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 56.8%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson42.1%26.1%31.9%
xgboost49.1%26.7%24.2%
logistic38.4%27.3%34.3%
Inputs the models saw
AZ AlkmaarTwente
Elo (pre-match)16461667
Surface Elo16461667
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.602.00
Form trend0.500.80
Season points per game1.331.33
Season goals for / game1.001.67
Season goals against / game1.331.67
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W5 W · 2 D
AZ Alkmaar: last 5
23 OctHHelmond Sport5 - 4W
22 OctAFC Ararat-Armenia4 - 0W
18 OctACambuur2 - 2D
18 OctACambuur2 - 2D
16 OctAVVV Venlo4 - 4D
Twente: last 5
22 OctALincoln Red Imps4 - 1W
18 OctHUtrecht1 - 2L
18 OctHUtrecht1 - 2L
15 OctHFC Thun1 - 0W
10 OctAFortuna Sittard1 - 1D
Head to head
03 May 2026AZ Alkmaar2 - 2Twente
30 Nov 2025Twente1 - 0AZ Alkmaar
14 May 2025Twente2 - 3AZ Alkmaar
21 Dec 2024AZ Alkmaar1 - 0Twente
05 May 2024AZ Alkmaar2 - 1Twente
13 Jan 2024Twente2 - 1AZ Alkmaar
19 Mar 2023Twente2 - 1AZ Alkmaar
11 Sep 2022AZ Alkmaar1 - 1Twente
13 Mar 2022AZ Alkmaar0 - 1Twente
23 Sep 2021Twente3 - 1AZ Alkmaar
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.0133.2%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.0324.8%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.2245.1%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4867.6%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.7536.4%24 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:55 UTC