| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.0% | 39% | +14.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 45.0% | 54.9% |
| logistic | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| Valerio Aboian | Miguel Tobon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1561 | 1487 |
| Surface Elo | 1561 | 1487 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Oct | H | Matias Soto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Facundo Mena | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Miguel Tobon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Matias Soto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Nicolas Mejia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Nicolas Mejia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Miguel Tobon | 1 - 2 | Valerio Aboian |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.48 | 67.6% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.55 | 39.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |