| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.3% | 31% | +23.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 84.6% | 64% | +21.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 78.0% | 44% | +33.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 52% | +3.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 54.1% | 25.9% | 20.0% |
| xgboost | 41.9% | 41.9% | 16.2% |
| logistic | 66.2% | 25.4% | 8.4% |
| Vallecano | Fuenlabrada | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1646 | 1346 |
| Surface Elo | 1646 | 1346 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.71 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 1.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.86 |
| Rest days | 6 | 1624 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 31 Oct | A | Mexico FC | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Celta | 3 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Celta | 3 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | RC Recreativo de Huelva | 1 - 1 | D |
| 25 Oct | H | CD Colonia Moscardo | 1 - 1 | D |
| 01 Nov | H | Las Rozas CF | 3 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Real Aranjuez CF | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | CF Pozuelo de Alarcon | 0 - 1 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Cp Parla Escuela | 2 - 2 | D |
| 04 Oct | H | Siello Nuevo Boadilla FC | 1 - 0 | W |
| 16 May 2021 | Fuenlabrada | 1 - 2 | Vallecano |
| 29 Oct 2020 | Vallecano | 2 - 0 | Fuenlabrada |
| 17 Jun 2020 | Vallecano | 1 - 0 | Fuenlabrada |
| 28 Sep 2019 | Fuenlabrada | 2 - 2 | Vallecano |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.10 | 32.3% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.20 | 31.2% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.92 | 52.1% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.76 | 56.8% | 07 Nov 06:15 |