| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.1% | 70% | -9.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 32.9% | 67.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| logistic | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| Luca Van Assche | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1815 | 1921 |
| Surface Elo | 1815 | 1921 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Oct | A | Lorenzo Musetti | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | Valentin Vacherot | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Valentin Vacherot | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Clement Tabur | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Clement Tabur | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Luca Van Assche | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Moise Kouame | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Moise Kouame | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Matteo Arnaldi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Matteo Arnaldi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Lorenzo Musetti | 2 - 1 | Luca Van Assche |
| 15 Jan 2024 | Lorenzo Musetti | 2 - 3 | Luca Van Assche |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.42 | 70.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.95 | 33.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |