| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.5% | 57% | -5.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| logistic | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Arthur Gea | Ugo Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1839 | 1844 |
| Surface Elo | 1839 | 1844 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | H | Ugo Humbert | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Jaime Faria | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Jaime Faria | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | H | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Arthur Gea | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Jiri Lehecka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Jiri Lehecka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct 2026 | Arthur Gea | 2 - 1 | Ugo Humbert |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.76 | 56.8% | 08 Oct 06:15 |